July 31st is the non-waiver trade deadline and we should start to see deals getting made over the next two weeks. The Tigers, Diamondbacks, Braves, Rangers, and Orioles, are the teams most likely to be buyers and they all need pitching help. I looked at the trade rumors being thrown out and imagined how each team might replace the player traded away. Everyone loves hypotheticals right? The biggest position to watch is closer where as many as eight teams could finish the season with different closers. One name that isn’t listed below but we should assume is involved in any Texas deal is Mike Olt. He was unimpressive in his brief appearance last year in the bigs but he’s back healthy for Triple A Rock Express and is still considered a high upside power bat. Look for the Rangers to move him and for his new team to promote him quickly. Let’s take a look at what hypothetically could happen in fantasy baseball over the second half. Strike early! All ownership percentages are from Yahoo! (I’m on West Coast time for Comments)
If The White Sox trade:
Jake Peavy (70%): It seems likely the White Sox would get a rotation guy in return for Peavy like a Rick Porcello-type, but if the organization wants to promote from within, Erik Johnson seems the first to be called up. He throws a mid-90s fastball with an above average curveball. Hector Santiago (9%) has been surprisingly effective and the White Sox may rely on his arm a lot more in the second half.
Alex Rios (94%): Some pundits have mentioned outfielder Jared Mitchell as a possible call-up but Trayce Thompson seems more ready after a 20/20 season last year. Both players don’t offer much upside for your fantasy teams this year. Similar to Peavy, I’d expect the White Sox to try and get a position player in return for Rios since Casper Wells seems ineffective and Adam Dunn can’t be counted on to play right field at this point in his career. They’ll go with Dayan Viciedo in left and Alejandro De Aza in center, but right field is a question mark. Could Andre Ethier be a fit?
If The Cubs trade:
Matt Garza (71%) / Travis Wood (73%) Wood hasn’t been talked about as much but the Cubs may decide to sell high on him. Carlos Villanueva (9%) has been re-inserted into the starting rotation and has value in most leagues as a streamer. Arodys Vizcaino is the best pitching prospect in the organization with 97mph heat but he had Tommy John surgery last year and may not be healthy enough for a call-up. Alberto Cabrera is another hard throwing prospect with a 98mph fastball but his inconsistency might hold him back from a promotion. If either is called-up I’m guessing it will be for bullpen work.
Kevin Gregg (66%) Still only 66% owned but one of the top closers in the game. The Cubbies are in full rebuild mode (as opposed to every other year…) and a lot of teams need relief pitching. Gregg seems very likely to be dealt and as long as he’s closing he has a lot of value. If he gets thrust into an 8th inning role then drop quickly.
If The Astros trade:
Bud Norris (17%): then Jarred Cosart (0%) should come back and start. He came over from Philly in the Hunter Pence deal and made his first start before the all star break and was outstanding. Cosart will probably be back soon anyway, trade or not, and might actually be roster-able even though he plays for the lowly Astros.
If The Phillies trade:
Cliff Lee (99%): then Tyler Cloyd is a safe bet to get some starts over the course of the second half, but Jesse Biddle has become a media darling for a team that has little star power in the minor leagues. Biddle’s fastball is around 92mph but he has an elite curveball with an above average change up which makes that fastball more effective. (As opposed to Gerrit Cole who has a 97mph fastball but below average slider and change). Cloyd is worth a stream against weaker lineups but Biddle could be worth spec-grabbing now.
Jonathan Papelbon (97%): It’s seems unlikely he’ll be traded but if he were traded, Antonio Bastardo is their next best reliever and seems the most likely to fill in at closer. The only problem with promoting Bastardo is it means removing the Phillies’ best left-handed reliever for situational purposes. The Phillies may just decide that trading Papelbon means seeing what they have in their young guys a.k.a. rotating a bunch of losers. Papelbon will likely stay.
If The Twins trade:
Glen Perkins (31%): then Casey Fien (1%) is next in line to close with Jared Burton (4%) as a dark horse. Neither seem very enticing but neither was Perkins at the beginning of the year and he turned out okay. If you’re hurting for saves then these are the kind of opportunities you have to jump on.
Clay Bucholz (13%): is not going to be traded but he’s been slow to come back from injury and may be on the shelf longer than expected. Allen Webster seems likely to keep starting games but he’s been un-ownable. It’s too soon for Matt Barnes to be promoted. The Red Sox know what they have, expect them to add a starter and if its Garza or Gallardo their value increases significantly.
If The Padres trade:
Edinson Volquez (7%): then Robbie Erlin (1%) should be back in the rotation for the rest of the year. The Padres have 4 pitching prospects ranked higher than Erlin but Erlin has one thing going for him that few prospects do, three plus-pitches. His fastball, curveball, and change up are good enough to turn over a lineup three times. He’s been inconsistent in his few starts but given a chance to settle-in he could quickly become very solid.
If The Brewers trade:
Jim Henderson (63%) Francisco Rodriguez (38%) John Axford (35%) The closer situation in Milwaukee seems to change everyday but at some point in the next couple weeks the decision should be made for us. If all 3 prospects get traded (unlikely) then Jimmy Nelson is the prospect most likely to step in. Nelson has struck out 72 Ks in 69 IP but he also induces a lot of ground balls which teams are finally realizing makes for a good closer.
Yovani Gallardo (83%) I’m worried about Gallardo but he’s so talented it doesn’t make sense to assume he’ll keep pitching poorly. It may be that he’s washed up but it’s rare that a pitcher like him falls off so quickly at age 27, one year from being a free agent. I’m betting he bounces back. To replace him, the Brewers might promote from within. He’s not their best prospect, but Johnny Hellweg seems ready to pitch in the big leagues. He has a 97mph fastball with an above average slider and average change up. After Hellweg the Brewers have a few high upside-guys like Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley but they’ve been inconsistent and seem destined for 2014. More than likely, if the Brewers deal with the Diamondbacks then Tyler Skaggs is probably the guy who steps into the rotation.
If The Marlins trade:
Steve Cishek (67%) then Mike Dunn (1%) should be the full time closer. There’s not much upside here but sometimes you’re desperate for saves. Giancarlo Stanton will be staying in Miami for the rest of the year. Juan Pierre might get dealt to make room for Christian Yelich (2%). Yelich should be viewed as the next Wil Myers whenever he gets promoted.
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